Author: International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)
Year of publication: 2019
Available languages: English
Type of assessment: Vulnerability assessment
Details: Assessment of crop yields under different climate scenarios for 17 major crops
Format of assessment: Web tool
Details: Excel sheet
Estimated costs for conducting: No information
Estimated duration of assessment: No information
To be carried out by whom: Others
Details: IFAD
Institutional scale of use: National
Assesment to be used by which target audience: Multiple actors
Details: Actors involved in agricultural and rural development investments and strategies
Output: Excel sheet
Region of origin: Europe
Developed by which sector: Development cooperation
Applied in practice: Yes
Geographic coverage in analysis: Africa
Potential geographic coverage: All IFAD regions
Sectors covered: Agriculture
Method used: Mixed method approach
Description of methodology: Modelling and projection of expected crop yields for 2020-2039
Risk framework used: No explicit use of risk framework
Details: Only one climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP), the RCP8.5 scenario was selected. The RCP8.5 scenario is the scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projecting the highest concentration in greenhouse gases (GHG)
Risk components incorporated: Hazard risk vulnerability
Hazards and impacts considered in the assessment: All hazards, Changing precipitation patterns
Source of required data: Secondary (available data is used)
Details: Data for global gridded crop climate models: e.g. leaf area development, light interception and utilization, yield formation, crop phenology, root distribution responsiveness to water availability at soil depth, water and heat stress, soil–crop–atmosphere water cycle dynamics, evapotranspiration, soil carbon and nitrogen cycling. Also general climate data to develop the different climate scenarios
Temporal scale: Forward looking
Participatory elements: No
Consideration of interconnectedness and -dependencies of risks: No information
Adressing uncertainty: Yes
Details: The CARD tool allows a choice between three risk settings, which impacts the way the underlying crop-climate models are analysed; Median: This setting reflects a “best guess” of the uncertainties reflected in the models. The models are aggregated using the median; Pessimistic: This setting reflects a pessimistic consideration of the uncertainties reflected in the models. The models are aggregated using the 10th percentile of all underlying crop yield projections (i.e. close to the model with the largest decline, or smallest increase, in crop yields); Optimistic: This setting reflects an optimistic consideration of the uncertainties reflected in the models.
Scope of assessment: Identification of risks, assessment of impacts
Economic/Non-Economic losses incorporated: Economic
Details: Crop yields
Applicability for entire risk spectrum (from extreme weather events to slow onset processes): No
Details: One caveat is that the current general circulation models do not fully resolve all short-term weather extremes (e.g. monsoon dynamics), some of which may be relevant for crop impacts
Recommendations for Adaptation measures included in Climate Risk Assessment: No
Usefulness for political purposes: Project proposal for Green Climate Fund (GCF)
Applied by whom: IFAD
Open access: Yes