Climate Adaptation in Rural Development (CARD) Assessment Tool


General Information:

Author: International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)

Year of publication: 2019

Available languages: English

Details of Assessment:

Type of assessment: Vulnerability assessment

Details: Assessment of crop yields under different climate scenarios for 17 major crops

Format of assessment: Web tool

Details: Excel sheet

Estimated costs for conducting: No information

Estimated duration of assessment: No information

To be carried out by whom: Others

Details: IFAD

Institutional scale of use: National

Assesment to be used by which target audience: Multiple actors

Details: Actors involved in agricultural and rural development investments and strategies

Output: Excel sheet


Coverage & Methodology:

Region of origin: Europe

Developed by which sector: Development cooperation

Applied in practice: Yes

Geographic coverage in analysis: Africa

Potential geographic coverage: All IFAD regions

Sectors covered: Agriculture

Method used: Mixed method approach

Description of methodology: Modelling and projection of expected crop yields for 2020-2039

Risk framework used: No explicit use of risk framework

Details: Only one climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP), the RCP8.5 scenario was selected. The RCP8.5 scenario is the scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projecting the highest concentration in greenhouse gases (GHG)

Risk components incorporated: Hazard risk vulnerability

Hazards and impacts considered in the assessment: All hazards, Changing precipitation patterns

Source of required data: Secondary (available data is used)

Details: Data for global gridded crop climate models: e.g. leaf area development, light interception and utilization, yield formation, crop phenology, root distribution responsiveness to water availability at soil depth, water and heat stress, soil–crop–atmosphere water cycle dynamics, evapotranspiration, soil carbon and nitrogen cycling. Also general climate data to develop the different climate scenarios  

Temporal scale: Forward looking

Participatory elements: No

Consideration of interconnectedness and -dependencies of risks: No information

Adressing uncertainty: Yes

Details: The CARD tool allows a choice between three risk settings, which impacts the way the underlying crop-climate models are analysed; Median: This setting reflects a “best guess” of the uncertainties reflected in the models. The models are aggregated using the median; Pessimistic: This setting reflects a pessimistic consideration of the uncertainties reflected in the models. The models are aggregated using the 10th percentile of all underlying crop yield projections (i.e. close to the model with the largest decline, or smallest increase, in crop yields); Optimistic: This setting reflects an optimistic consideration of the uncertainties reflected in the models.

Scope of assessment: Identification of risks, assessment of impacts

Relevance for losses and damages:

Economic/Non-Economic losses incorporated: Economic

Details: Crop yields

Applicability for entire risk spectrum (from extreme weather events to slow onset processes): No

Details: One caveat is that the current general circulation models do not fully resolve all short-term weather extremes (e.g. monsoon dynamics), some of which may be relevant for crop impacts


Recommendations for Adaptation measures included in Climate Risk Assessment: No

Usefulness for political purposes: Project proposal for Green Climate Fund (GCF)

Applied by whom: IFAD

Open access: Yes