Author: University of Massachusetts, U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), National Center for Atmospheric Research
Year of publication: 2016
Available languages: English
Type of assessment: Vulnerability assessment
Details: Multidimensional sensitivity analysis (pre-disaster risk assessment). The climate stress test is the term given to the multidimensional sensitivity analysis that is used to reveal the effects of possible climate changes, and other changes if desired, on the activity or system of interest.
Format of assessment: Report
Estimated costs for conducting: No information
Estimated duration of assessment: Expensive in computing time
To be carried out by whom: Consultants (climate experts)
Details: Software specialists who know how to handle for example the Energy Plus software or similar climate simulation software
Institutional scale of use: Local/community
Assesment to be used by which target audience: Multiple actors
Details: State level, local, regional decision makers. This research was done to guide investment decisions of Department of Defence (DoD) planners
Output: Report
Details: Scientific article including different figures mapping out different scales of impact of climatic changes on certain systems (risk models)
Region of origin: North America
Developed by which sector: Science, State-run
Applied in practice: Yes
Geographic coverage in analysis: North America
Potential geographic coverage: Worldwide
Sectors covered: Infrastructure, Water sector, Financial sector, Not sector specific,
Details: Does not seem limited to these sectors
Method used: Other (see details)
Description of methodology: In this study the climate stress test approach was applied using a simple empirical representation of drought and fire risk based on KBDI-a sophisticated planning model, Energy Plus, and in the case of water resources assessment- a series of hydrologic models and water system models some of which were created for the purposes of the study
Risk framework used: No explicit use of risk framework
Risk components incorporated: Hazard, exposure, sensitivity
Hazards and impacts considered in the assessment: Drought, Flood, Wildfire
Source of required data: Primary (data has to be generated)
Details: Data is generated via running a multi-model ensemble of projections, how often simulations need to be run depends entiretly on the system and its inherent characteristics (some require inclusion of sptial and temporal variables, while other systems can be assessed using the mean conditions)
Temporal scale: Forward looking
Participatory elements: No
Details: No participation needed as the method is based on an algorithm the focus lays on running models and developing scenarios
Consideration of interconnectedness and -dependencies of risks: Yes
Details: Uses advanced rather than single variable sensitivtiy analysis. This means that it considers correlated behaviour of multiple variables. e.g. connection between temperature, precipitation and wind
Adressing uncertainty: Yes
Scope of assessment: Identification of risks, assessment of impacts, identification of adaptation options
Details: The anaylsis determines which adaptations can preserve performance metrics above their thresholds across the range of future scenarios
Economic/Non-Economic losses incorporated: Economic
Details: No clear mention of considerations of non eocnomic loss. Focus lays primarily on feasibility of adaptation option in term of finances and supply of basic goods such as water etc.
Applicability for entire risk spectrum (from extreme weather events to slow onset processes): Yes
Details: Considers EWE but also looks into SOE, espeically temperature rises
Recommendations for Adaptation measures included in Climate Risk Assessment: Yes
Details: Offers recommendations as part of each case study based on vulnerability assessment. Presents most vulerable points and what kind of infrastructure to invest in to ensure security
Usefulness for political purposes: Uses variety of performance indicators: environmental, drought, water supply indicators
Applied by whom: Used by Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP)
Open access: Yes