Future risk assessment by estimating historical heatwave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan


General Information:

Author: Nasim, W. et al.

Year of publication: 2018

Available languages: English

Details of Assessment:

Type of assessment: Comprehensive impact and risk assessment

Format of assessment: Scientific article

Estimated costs for conducting: No information

Estimated duration of assessment: No information

To be carried out by whom: Scientists/researchers

Institutional scale of use: National

Assesment to be used by which target audience: No information

Output: Others (see details)

Details: Report and risk map


Coverage & Methodology:

Region of origin: Asia, Europe, Australia and Oceania, North America

Developed by which sector: Science

Applied in practice: Yes

Geographic coverage in analysis: Asia

Potential geographic coverage: Pakistan, could be adapted to other contexts

Sectors covered: Agriculture, Not sector specific

Details: Not sector specific; links to agriculture as exposed to drought due to heatwave

Method used: Quantitative model

Description of methodology: SimCLIM (statstical downscaling model for future trend projections); Identification of heatwave trends from historical data, projections with different climate scenarions (RCP 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 ); Projections of annual and seasonal heat accumulations

Risk framework used: No explicit use of risk framework

Risk components incorporated: Risk, Impact

Hazards and impacts considered in the assessment: Drought, Heatwave

Source of required data: Secondary (available data is used)

Details: Historical data on daily maximum temperature

Temporal scale: All

Participatory elements: No

Consideration of interconnectedness and -dependencies of risks: No

Adressing uncertainty: No

Scope of assessment: Identification of risks

Relevance for losses and damages:

Economic/Non-Economic losses incorporated: None

Details: Assessment only assesses the frequency of heatwaves

Applicability for entire risk spectrum (from extreme weather events to slow onset processes): No


Recommendations for Adaptation measures included in Climate Risk Assessment: No

Applied by whom: Nasim, W. et al.

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