Macroeconomic Models for Climate Resilience. An economic tool for adaptation and development planning


General Information:

Author: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH), Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS)

Year of publication: 2021

Available languages: English

Details of Assessment:

Type of assessment: Comprehensive impact and risk assessment

Details: Assesses the impacts and risks of climate hazards on the national economy and economic risk reduction potential of adaptation options

Format of assessment: Report, Software

Details: Scientific methodology with dashboards for results

Estimated costs for conducting: Costs depending on data availability, model complexity and capacity development needs

Estimated duration of assessment: Minimum 6 months

To be carried out by whom: Multiple actors

Details: Line ministry staff and economic research institutes

Institutional scale of use: National

Details: Possibility to extend to subnational/province level if data available

Assesment to be used by which target audience: State level decision makers

Output: Others (please describe)

Details: Economic assessment of climate risks and adaptation options


Coverage & Methodology:

Region of origin: Europe

Developed by which sector: Development cooperation, Science

Applied in practice: Yes

Geographic coverage in analysis: Europe, Asia

Details: Georgia, Kazakhstan, Vietnam

Potential geographic coverage: Location specific data is needed as input

Sectors covered: Applicable to sector of interest

Method used: Quantitative model

Description of methodology: Information on damages collected from desk-based review and sector-based stakeholder consultations. Compiled data is then integrated into macroeconomic model.

Risk framework used: AR5

Risk components incorporated: All

Hazards and impacts considered in the assessment: All hazards

Details: Most relevant hazards for a given country

Source of required data: Both

Details: Past and current hazard damages; socioeconomic data from literature review and line ministries; sectoral data from literature review, and sectoral stakeholders

Temporal scale: Current, Forward looking

Participatory elements: Yes

Details: Line ministries identify most relevant economic sectors for assessment

Consideration of interconnectedness and -dependencies of risks: Yes

Details: Macroeconomic model considers and illustrates interconnectedness of economic sectors and associated risks

Adressing uncertainty: Yes

Details: Different scenarios included (inaction, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, (or related SSPs), adaptation options)

Scope of assessment: Identification of risks, assessment of impacts, identification of adaptation options, priorization of adaptation options, identification of limits to adaptation

Details: Assessment results demonstrate economic benefits of adaptation options and can guide decisionmakers; regular M&E refines model and output

Relevance for losses and damages:

Economic/Non-Economic losses incorporated: Economic

Details: Economic Key Indicators (GDP, Employment, Consumption Expenditures, Imports)

Applicability for entire risk spectrum (from extreme weather events to slow onset processes): Yes


Recommendations for Adaptation measures included in Climate Risk Assessment: Yes

Usefulness for political purposes: Geared towards national-level line ministries to consider model results for long-term economic planning-

Applied by whom: Line ministries and economic research institutes in partner countries

Open access: Only the methodology of the digital tool is open access