Author: Arnell, N., Gosling, S.
Year of publication: 2014
Available languages: English
Type of assessment: Not specified
Details: Risk assessment
Format of assessment: Scientific article
Estimated costs for conducting: No information
Estimated duration of assessment: No information
To be carried out by whom: Scientists/researchers
Institutional scale of use: Global
Assesment to be used by which target audience: No information
Output: Risk map
Region of origin: Europe
Developed by which sector: Science
Applied in practice: Yes
Geographic coverage in analysis: Worldwide
Potential geographic coverage: Worldwide
Sectors covered: Agriculture, Financial sector
Details: Takes into account GDP (economic assets) and cropland (agriculture)
Method used: Quantitative model
Description of methodology: Use of indicators to assess risk: flood frequency, flood magnitude, population exposed, cropland exposed, annual flood loss. Both sets of scenarios (population and climate) are constructed by pattern-scaling the output from 21 of the climate models in the CMIP3 multi-model dataset; climate scenarios for the four SRES emissions scenarios were constructed by rescaling the climate model patterns to the change in global mean surface temperature as estimated with SRES emissions by the simple climate model MAGICC
Risk framework used: No explicit use of risk framework
Risk components incorporated: Hazard, exposure, impact / losses
Hazards and impacts considered in the assessment: Flood
Source of required data: Secondary (available data is used)
Details: The CRU TS3.1 data set is used here to characterise current climate; estimates of the numbers of people living in flood-prone areas at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° were derived by combining 5′ flood-prone areas identified on the UN PREVIEW Global Risk Data Platform (preview.grid.unep.ch), with the CIESIN GRUMP population data set for the year 2000
Temporal scale: Forward looking
Details: Information given is only a relative change to today's situation
Participatory elements: No
Consideration of interconnectedness and -dependencies of risks: No
Adressing uncertainty: Yes
Details: In discussion of the paper uncertainty in models, scenarios and assumptions are explained
Scope of assessment: Identification of risks, assessment of impacts
Economic/Non-Economic losses incorporated: Non-Economic
Details: Annual flood loss is described in a non-monetary term, based on a generic function linking flood magnitude to loss
Applicability for entire risk spectrum (from extreme weather events to slow onset processes): No
Details: Only one risk considered which is short-term
Recommendations for Adaptation measures included in Climate Risk Assessment: No
Applied by whom: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, UK
Open access: Yes